Industry Notes / First-half 2026 review / Chapter 3 of 3 · Thesis cards
Second-half direction
US breadth; A-shares anchored on earnings momentum
US: Mag7 toward breadth
Banks stay constructive but want wider leadership; watch plumbing risk.
Keep core AI; cap crowded single names.
A-shares: earnings test
Concept trades yield to durable industry trends with prints.
Momentum lines: overseas/domestic compute, resources, some aerospace.
Dollar remains the switch
Soft dollar + no hike eases EM (including China-linked) financial conditions.
Stronger US growth lifting the dollar can reverse inflows.
US keeps core tech but broadens into cyclicals/financials/industrials; A-shares run a structural slow bull on compute + recovery. Rebalancing helps non-US if the dollar stays soft.
Source：H1 2026 复盘备忘：投行 H2 观点公开转述
Research notes, not investment advice.