Industry Notes / Hogs and Muyuan / Chapter 2 of 4 · Thesis cards
What is new in this hog cycle
The cycle remains; swings are institutionally capped
De-stocking is underway
Multi-month decline since Jul 2025; normal inventory target cut to 37.5 m.
Betting on a violent price spike is less valuable.
Efficiency raises supply elasticity
Industry PSY ~23+; efficient farms ~30—same slaughter needs fewer sows.
Do not map old-cycle price elasticities one-for-one.
Policy caps the swing
Long sow / mid piglet / short hog tools; large groups file annual plans.
Cost leadership and cash beat gambling the rebound.
Supply inertia persists, but sow targets were cut and alerts tightened. The downleg meets softer demand and higher PSY—fewer sows can meet the same output.
Source：农业农村部产能调控方案；公开存栏与价格第三方估计
Research notes, not investment advice.