Industry Notes / Hogs and Muyuan / Chapter 4 of 4 · Thesis cards

Policy: institutional swing compression

Sow targets cut; large groups must file plans

1. 1

   Lower target admits reality

   39.0 m

   Prior normal inventory

   vs

   37.5 m

   2026 revised target

   Demand plateau + higher PSY + prior overcapacity.

   Policy stands on the side of compressing the cycle.

2. 2

   Window guidance for giants

   Groups with 100k+ sows file annual production plans.

   “Who expands fastest” is no longer the only contest.

3. 3

   Portfolio read

   Active + passive de-stocking may lengthen profitable stretches for cost/cash leaders.

   Track sow, piglet, and hog indicators—not only spot hog prices.

Normal inventory target 39.0→37.5 m; long sow / mid piglet / short hog tools. Disorderly major expansion is constrained—good for cost leaders’ share quality.

Source：农业农村部《生猪产能综合调控实施方案（2026年修订）》

Research notes, not investment advice.