Industry Notes / Global mining: the metal map / Chapter 5 of 12 · Thesis cards
AI and metals: tier it
Copper ≈ uranium > GOES > silver > aluminium > tin ≫ iron ore
Tier one: copper and uranium
Copper prices the tight margin; uranium prices 24/7 baseload with term over spot.
These two are what the AI line must actually price.
Silver and aluminium are supporting
Silver has paste and electronics; aluminium has cable substitution—with different surplus structures.
Stories exist; torque is usually weaker than copper.
Iron ore is mostly noise
Five-year cumulative steel add is a rounding error.
Do not paste an AI label on iron-ore exposure.
One AI capex narrative, order-of-magnitude different price elasticities. BHP: ~$200 bn/year extra data-center spend ≈ one new 150 ktpa copper mine.
Source：调研正文第 3 章 AI 敞口强度排序；BHP 公开量化
Research notes, not investment advice.