Industry Notes

Library

Mining: copper over iron

Copper over iron, but miners are not one trade

Some chapters use bars, others use thesis cards or side-by-side. Start with profit mix, then factors, the defensive role of iron, and what would break the view.

Read mining through three questions

  1. Copper and iron are not one trade: AI moves copper’s margin; iron ore still tracks China steel.
  2. Price both together: a $10 iron-ore drop can hurt more than a $1,000 copper rise helps.
  3. Liking copper is not higher next-year miner profit: volumes, costs, and government take still matter.

Updated 2026-08-21 · Research notes, not investment advice.

  1. 1. Copper profit has passed iron oreBar
  2. 2. AI is not the same story for copper and iron oreSide-by-side
  3. 3. Both prices have to be assumed togetherBar
  4. 4. Liking copper is not the same as higher next-year profitBar
  5. 5. Eight layers behind the copper priceThesis cards
  6. 6. Iron ore is the defensive assetThesis cards
  7. 7. Tax, currency, and by-productsThesis cards
  8. 8. Five signals that would break the viewThesis cards