Industry Notes / Mining: copper over iron / Chapter 2 of 8 · Side-by-side
AI is not the same story for copper and iron ore
Roughly true for copper; noise for iron ore
Copper
- 2026 data-center copper use about 0.3–0.7 Mt, midpoint ~0.5 Mt
- Global copper demand growth ~0.45 Mt—one sector can absorb the year’s increase
- Under 2% of total use, but it sets the marginal price in a tight balance
- The story is supply failing a mild rigid demand curve, not exponential boom
Iron ore
- About 100 kt of steel per 1 GW of data centers
- Cumulative steel need over five years: a few Mt to ~10 Mt
- Versus ~1.9 bn t of global crude steel—about 0.5% scale
- China property steel already down ~36.5% from peak, swamping the AI pull
A side-by-side is clearer than two bars. Copper is about the marginal tonne; iron’s steel pull from data centers is tiny versus global crude steel, so pricing still sits with China property and new seaborne supply.
Source：Kpler；ICSG；IEA 数据中心装机口径；POSCO 用钢测算
Research notes, not investment advice.