Industry Notes / Robots: Tesla and Unitree / Chapter 10 of 10 · Thesis cards

Robots: risk list

In a “mass-production year” narrative, five lights still cut forecasts

1. 1

   Rare earths and export controls

   ~3.5 kg NdFeB per unit; China ~90% of magnet capacity.

   Optimus ramps are license-sensitive.

2. 2

   Price wars started by leaders

   Unitree can and will cut; upstream shifts to volume over price.

   Fat component margins may close faster than expected.

3. 3

   Brain remains a cost center

   Fundraising skews to models; near-term net gets hit by R&D.

   High OEM gross ≠ durable high net.

Magnet geopolitics, price wars, brain spend eating profit, Tesla order misses, narrative-sensitive multiples—more important than OEM slogans.

Source：调研正文第 11 章风险提示

Research notes, not investment advice.