Industry Notes / Global mining: the metal map / Chapter 11 of 12 · Thesis cards
Lithium and policy metals
Lithium can ramp fast; REE and cobalt follow quotas
Lithium: inflection visible, structure different
Prices again support large capex; new supply ramps far faster than copper.
Do not force copper’s scarcity frame onto lithium.
REE and cobalt: policy-priced
China export controls, DRC quotas—curves get politically interrupted.
Position sizing differs from freely priced Cu/Au.
Molybdenum is the ignored by-product
Realized prices ~$21→~$32/lb lift copper-mine cash profit.
When reading copper cash costs, track Mo/Au credits separately.
Zijin’s H1 LCE-equivalent output ~+514% y/y; FY target ~120 kt. Lithium rarely copies copper’s structural bull because supply ramps too fast. REE/cobalt are policy trades.
Source：紫金矿业 2026H1；调研正文第 8 章锂与政策品种
Research notes, not investment advice.