Industry Notes / Global mining: the metal map / Chapter 12 of 12 · Thesis cards

Tin: cleanest bull case this year

Stocks ~three days of demand; AI servers use several× tin

1. 1

   Physically tight

   ~5,535 t

   LME stocks, order of magnitude

   vs

   ~3 days

   Global demand coverage

   ITA sees ~8–10 kt 2026 deficit, multi-year short.

   Clean story—manage crowding separately.

2. 2

   AI is real incremental demand

   AI servers use several times the tin of legacy boxes.

   Same broad narrative as copper; shorter, more brittle balances.

YTD ~+37.5% leads metals. Myanmar restart capped; no large new mines before 2028; LME stocks ~5.5 kt. Risks: faster restarts and crowded funds.

Source：LME 库存与 ITA 缺口估计；调研正文第 9 章锡

Research notes, not investment advice.