Industry Notes / Midea and European air conditioning / Chapter 10 of 10 · Thesis cards
One-page verdict
The fuse has lit; the long slope is just starting
Heatwaves are the fuse, not the story
The real drivers are structural penetration catch-up plus install-free product innovation against friction.
Read the blank market before the weather.
Midea is the round’s biggest winner
H1 WE AC +70%, PortaSplit doubled; medium term stacks OBM branding + Arbonia heating; houses often rank it China appliances #1.
Near term watch the hit; medium term watch whether the second home sticks.
Growth is steady quality, not an explosion
European AC is high-certainty incremental—not enough to rewrite group growth math.
Book the beat as quality, not as a regime change.
Structure: China big-3 lead; Europe is the main field
Midea (revenue/definition) and Haier (volume/platform) gain most; Gree lags on thin overseas.
Whether share sticks turns on regulation, tariffs, and heating.
Close the book in four lines: event, winner, growth, structure. Every later chapter should map back here.
Source：欧洲高温与美的家电分析报告 §七；公开年报与机构一致预期
Research notes, not investment advice.