Industry Notes / Midea and European air conditioning / Chapter 9 of 10 · Thesis cards
Can share stick: five variables
Hits prove demand; rules and cycles decide what remains
F-Gas / refrigerant swap
R32 placement window closes end-2026; R290 PortaSplit targets summer 2027. Gaps or price jumps break hit continuity.
Watch compliance cadence before the next summer’s shipments.
Trade remedies & tariffs
Share jumps invite EU remedy talk; localized make plus TEKA/Arbonia hedges—doesn’t immunize.
OBM + in-Europe capacity beats pure export under stress.
Heat pulse fades
A cool summer hits channel stock and scalp premiums; the penetration slope remains, but the beat wobbles.
Separate weather beta from penetration alpha.
Grid & power prices
High tariffs and grid constraints can suppress usage intensity—or spark policy friction.
Efficiency and heat-pump framing matter more than raw cooling.
Incumbent pushback
Daikin/BSH hold premium and service networks; Chinese brands must trade definition rights for service and trust.
Share is won in aftersales and brand, not only shipping weeks.
After the pulse, the real question is whether Chinese brands turn a 41% supply story into defensible OBM share inside the penetration climb. Five variables decide.
Source：EU F-Gas / 贸易救济公开讨论；行业与机构风险提示
Research notes, not investment advice.