Industry Notes / Pharma / Chapter 14 of 20 · Pie
AI: real speed-up, often misplaced value
Speed-up is preclinical; cost and failure still sit in the clinic
- Target discovery12% · 12%
- Molecule design12% · 12%
- IND tox/CMC5% · 5%
- Phase I–III61% · 61%
- Approval & other10% · 10%
The pie is an illustrative capitalized-cost split: Phase I–III is still about three fifths, while AI today mostly touches targets and molecule design. Faster preclinical work cuts total cost only modestly; lifting II→III success would move NPV more—and that proof is still thin. Value more reliably flows to pick-and-shovel CXO; pure AI platforms are riskiest.
Source：研发成本结构为产业常用资本化成本拆分示意；AI 渗透判断见调研正文与公开案例（Exscientia、Recursion、英矽智能等）
Research notes, not investment advice.