Industry Notes

Library

Pharma

Profits sit in the US, and headline deal values need a discount

Bars, thesis cards, timelines, compares, and matrices—from payers and national soil to the nine-factor frame, outbound math, ten-bagger gates, and Japan/India mirrors.

Read pharma through three questions

  1. Who buys: where patients are, and whether you can commercialize yourself.
  2. Who pays: US commercial / Medicare, or China reimbursement.
  3. How much you keep: upfront, royalties, or product profit.

Updated 2026-08-23 · Research notes, not investment advice.

  1. 1. Of the ten conclusions, keep these five firstThesis cards
  2. 2. The profit pool is in the United StatesBar
  3. 3. US pricing rewrite: the key timelineTimeline
  4. 4. The same category can still split apartBar
  5. 5. Only the upfront is cash in handPie
  6. 6. Out-licensing deal totals jumped an order of magnitude in four yearsLine
  7. 7. Global peak sales: the US takes more than halfPie
  8. 8. BeOne sells in the US itselfPie
  9. 9. BeOne and Hengrui: two outbound pathsSide-by-side
  10. 10. WuXi AppTec: chemistry is more than four fifthsPie
  11. 11. Nine factors for judging a drugThesis cards
  12. 12. What kind of company China can growBar
  13. 13. Insurance: generics squeezed, innovative drugs trade price for volumeSide-by-side
  14. 14. AI: real speed-up, often misplaced valuePie
  15. 15. Japan mirror: thirty years of price deflationThesis cards
  16. 16. Why Switzerland and DenmarkThesis cards
  17. 17. Where ten-baggers can come fromTable
  18. 18. India mirror: the pharmacy-of-the-world ceilingSide-by-side
  19. 19. Tech line: from dye works to platform firmsTimeline
  20. 20. Where China leads globallyTable