Industry Notes / Pharma / Chapter 11 of 20 · Thesis cards
Nine factors for judging a drug
Split the bull case; one zero zeros the score
Start with base odds
Oncology is lower. Agency definitions differ—cite source and year.
A bull case you cannot split into observables is close to a coin flip.
Nine factors multiply; they do not add
F1 need · F2 target · F3 edge · F4 safety · F5 CMC · F6 patents · F7 payers · F8 commercial · F9 patience
No payer path, cannot manufacture, or cash breaks—any near-zero zeros the total.
The common China-asset profile
The math often says: make yourself hard to replace, rent payers/sales to MNCs, and create one or two real edges.
Owning overseas commercial is hard—and the only move that rewrites the profile.
How to use the scorecard
Early weight on target validation; late weight on edge, safety, CMC, payers. Every score needs a source.
The best use is often spotting an asset that already has a zero before the market does.
Nine factors multiply: need, target, edge, safety, CMC, patents, payers, commercial, and capital patience. China’s common profile is strong making/speed and weak payers/own sales—so licensing and CXO dominate, while owning US commercial is hardest and most valuable.
Source：BIO/Informa 临床成功率统计；Tufts CSDD / Deloitte 资本化研发成本测算；九因子权重见产业调研框架
Research notes, not investment advice.