Industry Notes / Pharma / Chapter 17 of 20 · Table
Where ten-baggers can come from
Five-factor multiplication; score 8+/10 before treating as core
| Dimension | Factor | 0 (trap) | 2 (super) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unmet need | Many therapies; only convenience | No therapy; tens of millions of patients | |
| Efficacy gap | Non-inferior only | Head-to-head win that rewrites guidelines | |
| Exclusivity | <5y or crowded Phase III | >8y + process/device barriers | |
| Value capture | Pure license-out, single-digit royalty | Keep US rights; own or co-build commercial | |
| Focus | Pipeline across 4+ unrelated areas | One domain for 10+ years |
Definition: 10× market cap in 5–10 years driven by product profit. Hard gates: peak ≥$5 bn, keep ≥50% of value, exclusivity ≥7 years. Watch metabolic supply, autoimmune TCE/in vivo CAR-T, and next-gen ADCs.
Source：调研正文第 13 章超级牛股标准与主线；IQVIA 肥胖症市场口径
Research notes, not investment advice.