Industry Notes / Semiconductors: domestic substitution / Chapter 2 of 5 · Thesis cards

The chain

Main chain defines the chip; upstream sells the shovels

1. 1

   Three main-chain steps

   Who defines (design), who builds (fab), who packages/tests (OSAT).

   Mature-node expansion is the upstream order faucet.

2. 2

   Four shovel categories

   Equip + materials

   Biggest volume×price torque

   vs

   EDA / IP

   Long slope, very low localization

   Long qualification; sticky once qualified.

   Watch qualification progress before share stories.

3. 3

   Substitution path

   Mature first, easy to hard, bottom-up.

   Advanced nodes constrained; mature nodes + advanced packaging are the detour.

Design → fab → OSAT is the main chain; EDA/IP, equipment, materials, and parts sit upstream. Upstream does not bet on one chip winner—fabs are the customer base.

Source：A 股半导体国产替代调研：产业链全景框架

Research notes, not investment advice.