Industry Notes

Industry Notes / Semiconductors: domestic substitution / Chapter 5 of 5 · Thesis cards

Four growth drivers

Split the substitution theme into four checkable forces

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  1. Supply–demand gap

    China consumes ~1/3 of global semis with far lower self-sufficiency.

    The room is the gap, not the slogan.

  2. Controls force the issue

    Advanced tools, EDA, and high-compute chips restricted—qualification accelerates.

    Near-term capacity pain; longer-term domestic orders.

  3. Capital and policy

    Big Fund III, tax, and STAR lengthen the capital cycle.

    Watch qualification and orders, not only theme heat.

  4. Path: mature first

    28 nm+ expansion is solid and pulls tools/materials; advanced packaging detours leading-edge.

    Portfolio: fab anchor + tool/material torque + high-end design offense.

Big market / low self-sufficiency is the base; export controls make substitution mandatory; funds and STAR supply long capital; mature-first bottom-up is the path. Fab expansion is the upstream order faucet.

Source：A 股半导体国产替代调研 §六成长空间四大驱动力

Research notes, not investment advice.