Industry Notes / Semiconductors: domestic substitution / Chapter 4 of 5 · Thesis cards
Risks
Even on a durable theme, five lights still need monthly checks
Export controls cut both ways
More limits on tools/materials/EDA slow expansion but raise the security mandate.
Read both the headwind and the catalyst.
Cycle and valuation
Downcycles cut capex first upstream; expectations are partly priced.
Missed delivery kills multiples.
Qualification and competition
Lithography/high-end resists still face yield risk; design segments price-war easily.
Demand proof of volume supply into top fabs.
Tighter controls slow capacity near-term and harden substitution longer-term; cycle, valuation, yield, and price wars can still break the trade.
Source：A 股半导体国产替代调研 §七
Research notes, not investment advice.