Industry Notes / Solar / Chapter 2 of 12 · Thesis cards

How this cycle differs

First demand contraction; supply cuts output, not capacity

1. 1

   Demand truly contracts

   −66%

   China 2026H1 new installs y/y

   vs

   −0.9%

   BNEF 2026 global installs

   After Document 136, ~80% of projects swim without a firm tariff model.

   Re-anchor valuation on replacement cost and cash, not growth.

2. 2

   Cutting output ≠ retiring capacity

   Wafer/cell/module capacity already exceeds 1,000 GW; idle lines can restart.

   Any price bounce invites idle capacity back.

3. 3

   Prices through cash cost

   ~0.71

   TOPCon module (RMB/W, August print)

   vs

   ~−66%

   Cumulative drop since 2023

   August rebounds need trades and inventory, not just offers.

   2026 trough and 2027 profit repair ≠ a boom rebound.

Prior gluts waited for demand to catch up. This round China H1 installs are about −66% y/y and global growth is near flat to negative; nameplate capacity is still ~2× demand.

Source：国家能源局装机；BNEF 全球装机预测；SMM 现货价（经公开转述）

Research notes, not investment advice.