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Solar

The further from the module, the less likely the loss

Value map, clearance, First Solar, ceilings, silver thrift, perovskite, three escapes—the long memo’s back half is in.

Read solar through three questions

  1. What is new this cycle: first demand contraction, and whether capacity really exits.
  2. How far profit sits from the watt: equipment/auxiliaries earn; integrated modules lose.
  3. Same energy narrative—why money flowed to batteries, not modules.

Updated 2026-09-22 · Research notes, not investment advice.

  1. 1. Storage and modules are different businessesBar
  2. 2. How this cycle differsThesis cards
  3. 3. LONGi after an 80% declineBar
  4. 4. LONGi and CATL: the money went to batteriesSide-by-side
  5. 5. Further from the watt, more profit: value mapTable
  6. 6. Why clearance is so slowTimeline
  7. 7. First Solar: not a manufacturing winSide-by-side
  8. 8. Two ceilings: subsidy expiry and AI powerThesis cards
  9. 9. Why no mega-cap solar manufacturersBar
  10. 10. Cost lead changes: from silicon to silver thriftThesis cards
  11. 11. Perovskite: an option that can zero existing assets earlyTimeline
  12. 12. Three escapes from commoditizationSide-by-side