Industry Notes / Solar / Chapter 10 of 12 · Thesis cards

Cost lead changes: from silicon to silver thrift

Silver paste already beat silicon as the top cell cost line

1. 1

   Top cost line changed

   ~42%

   Paste share of cell cost

   vs

   +147%

   2025 London silver move, order of magnitude

   Sensitivity: +10% silver ≈ +RMB 0.01/W module cost.

   Half of August module lifts were cost-push—cash went to paste and silver, not module makers.

2. 2

   BC is the silver hog

   10–13

   TOPCon mg Ag / W

   vs

   15–18

   XBC / HPBC mg Ag / W

   Efficiency premium ~1–2 ¢/W gets eaten by silver at the same time.

   LONGi’s BC odds were rewritten by the silver tape.

3. 3

   Thrift thresholds already crossed

   Above ~RMB 16,000/kg, Ag-coated Cu and Cu paste economics both clear.

   Harder tech path than cell-architecture wars; Cu still needs Ag/Ni seed—half a solution.

Early 2026 silver paste is ~42% of cell cost, above silicon. BC uses the most silver per watt. Past the silver-price threshold, thrifting (Ag-coated Cu / Cu plating) is more certain than TOPCon vs BC.

Source：中信建投期货测算；CPIA / 索比光伏网综合口径；银价公开行情

Research notes, not investment advice.