Industry Notes / Midea and European air conditioning / Chapter 7 of 10 · Thesis cards
How long the penetration climb lasts
Europe is a multi-year upcycle; company growth stays mid-single digits
The cake is still growing
More frequent extremes pull penetration into a structural catch-up—Citi’s multi-year up-cycle frame.
Long slope—not one summer.
Discount company growth
Europe ToC HVAC is a beat; the group still rests on smart home + ToB + globalization.
Quality mix shift, not a group rewrite.
Next ticket is heating
Arbonia / MBT Climate + EU heat-pump decarbonization: cooling and heating fuse. PortaSplit’s DIY heat-pump frame points the same way.
After the cooling spike, watch whether heating share sticks.
European AC market ~$265 bn (2025) → $464 bn (2034), CAGR ~6.4%. IEA: EU stock toward ~275 m units by 2050 (more than double vs 2019). Midea benefits, but consensus 2026–2028 revenue stays mid/high single digits.
Source：IEA / 行业规模预测；花旗等机构一致预期（公开转述）
Research notes, not investment advice.