Industry Notes / Moutai and Baijiu overseas / Chapter 4 of 4 · Thesis cards
The denominator shrinks: people and cohorts
Volume pressure is structural demographics, not only cycle
Core cohort shrinks irreversibly
Demand ≈ people × frequency × pour size—all three soft.
Aging does not automatically floor baijiu.
Generations are not “not old enough yet”
Post-95 share of baijiu buyers ~18%; 80%+ prefer low-ABV.
Social-currency weakens; self-drink and collectibles need work.
Implication for Moutai
Scarcity and brand are the strongest buffers; recycled stock and fading investment demand still hit wholesale.
Watch Feitian wholesale and direct-sales mix harder than near-term overseas size.
Men aged 30–55 are already ~21.4 m below 2020 and may be 50 m+ lower by 2030. Youth shift to low-ABV; business occasions shrink. Moutai offsets the denominator with share, price, and mix.
Source：国家统计局人口结构；调研正文第 3–4 章
Research notes, not investment advice.