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Moutai and Baijiu overseas

Domestic is the board; overseas is still an option

Pie, bars, and scenario cards. Start with overseas share, then the volume decline and 3–5 year growth cases.

Read Moutai through three questions

  1. Is volume structurally shrinking: nine years of declines are not a normal cycle dip.
  2. Can overseas be the engine: still ~3%—an option, not the driver.
  3. Where is the growth mid-point: mid-single digits plus dividends, or a fantasy of teens.

Updated 2026-06-30 · Research notes, not investment advice.

  1. 1. Overseas is still about three percent of salesPie
  2. 2. Nine years of falling outputLine
  3. 3. Growth scenarios for the next 3–5 yearsThesis cards
  4. 4. The denominator shrinks: people and cohortsThesis cards