Industry Notes / Moutai and Baijiu overseas / Chapter 3 of 4 · Thesis cards

Growth scenarios for the next 3–5 years

Most likely: mid-single digits plus high payouts

1. 1

   Base case: downshift, not stall

   0%~+2%

   2026E revenue (base)

   vs

   +5%~+7%

   2028–2030E revenue mid-point

   Price mix, structure upgrade, and direct sales offset volume pressure.

   Reset expectations from teens to single digits.

2. 2

   Overseas remains an option

   ~RMB 48.5 bn in 2025 → ~90–110 bn by 2030 under base assumptions.

   Brand premium and narrative—not the revenue engine.

3. 3

   Dividends matter more in a downshift

   2025 cash dividends ~RMB 650 bn, a record.

   Shareholder yield is part of the pricing anchor.

Base case revenue CAGR ~4–5%, net ~5–6%. Even with overseas CAGR 12–18%, the 2030 share is still about 4–5%.

Source：基于茅台 2025 年报的情景测算；非公司指引（公司未设 2026 增长目标）

Research notes, not investment advice.