Industry Notes

Industry Notes / Solar / Chapter 8 of 12 · Thesis cards

Two ceilings: subsidy expiry and AI power

Demand can be huge; manufacturing still captures little value

What is still unclear?

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  1. 45X has an end date

    Bear cases show mid-single-digit margins without credits unless Congress extends or costs fall hard in seven years.

    The moat has a calendar.

  2. AI power ≠ module windfall

    1 GW of 24/7 load needs ~4–6 GW PV plus storage and backup.

    Money goes to batteries and dispatchable power for physics reasons.

  3. Penetration self-deflates

    More installs crush midday prices; China cut utilization red lines; Jiangsu distributed once plunged y/y.

    Fixes are storage/demand response/transmission—none make modules richer.

First Solar’s 45X hits zero in 2033 beside an order cliff; AI power need is real, but capacity factor makes PV a side dish—storage and dispatchable power are the mains.

Source：EIA / WoodMac / IEA；First Solar 45X 法定退坡；调研正文第 8–9 章

Research notes, not investment advice.