Industry Notes

Industry Notes / Solar / Chapter 7 of 12 · Side-by-side

First Solar: not a manufacturing win

Four walls—tech, policy, contracts, discipline—put it in another market

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First Solar

  • 2026 volume guide ~17–18 GW
  • Adj. EBITDA guide $2.6–2.8 bn
  • Backlog ~45 GW / $13.6 bn into 2030
  • 45X credits ~$2.1–2.2 bn (~$0.17/W)

vs LONGi

  • Module shipment target ~80 GW class
  • 2026H1 net about −RMB 34 to −38 bn
  • Spot commodity pricing; no US policy wall
  • Not competing in the same profit pool

Shipments ~1/5 of LONGi’s yet EBITDA guide $2.6–2.8 bn; LONGi still loses in H1. Wins on CdTe/UFLPA, 45X+232, and long contracts—not line efficiency.

Source：First Solar 2026Q2 与全年指引；隆基出货/亏损公开口径

Research notes, not investment advice.